IPCC co-author: 'Pretty stark material to wade through'
Welcome to the first edition of New England Climate Dispatch, a newsletter about environmental justice, policy, and social movements in the region
Another dire warning
Last week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released another dire warning about our future, perfectly timed with Russia’s war on Ukraine to be almost entirely buried in the news cycle.
The 3,675-page ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ report highlights the documented and projected impacts of climate change on human and ecological systems.
To sum up some of the key findings of the massive document:
The report found that climate change has brought about “widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people.” These impacts are felt the most by people living in poverty and in vulnerable areas.
Between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change (slightly less than half of the world’s population).
While we’re already locked in for (and experiencing) widespread damage from climate change, overshooting 1.5°C of warming will lead to increased damages, push many human systems to their limits, and likely trigger additional emissions.
The fates of humans and ecosystems are ultimately tied together, and protecting biodiversity is essential for climate resiliency. To preserve healthy ecosystems, humans will likely need to conserve between 30% to 50% of the earth’s land and water.
While the IPCC report lacks a hyper-regional focus, Dharna Noor of The Boston Globe put together an excellent summary of the report’s implications on New England. From that story:
This region, in fact, is on the front lines of the climate crisis, threatened by rising seas and temperatures. Some of these climatic changes are unleashing cascading effects, imperiling local communities, cultures, and economies.
For additional context on the report, I spoke with co-author Rachel Bezner Kerr of Cornell University. She was a coordinating lead author on the report’s 5th chapter, ‘Food, fibre, and other ecosystem products,’ and a drafting author on the report’s Summary for Policymakers.
“Climate change impacts are stressing agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and aquaculture,” Bezner Kerr told me. “These observed impacts are severe and widespread especially in low and mid latitudes, but there is considerable evidence of impacts in North America.”
She noted that the report found evidence of negative impacts of climate change on major crop yields globally, and increased evidence for climate-induced extreme weather events, which can have reverberating negative effects on food systems.
“With every increase in global warming, there's increasing severity and increasing risks that are more widespread,” said Bezner Kerr. “It's pretty stark material to wade through for three years.”
Like all other 300-plus authors of the report, Bezner Kerr’s work for the IPCC has come as a volunteer. She said that a desire to see positive change in the world has kept her going.
“It couldn't be more critical to take action now … and to reduce greenhouse gases if we are going to avoid the most severe impacts,” she said. “I think it's starting to become clear to North Americans that no one is spared from climate change impacts.”
Takeaways for the region
While the IPCC expects climate impacts to be most devastating for vulnerable regions in the Global South, the report highlights some details that are especially relevant for New England.
Storms
Tropical cyclones have increased in intensity throughout the Atlantic region, with added evidence for this trend since the last IPCC Assessment Report.
The Northeastern Atlantic coast is facing compounding threats of land subsidence (gradual settling or sudden sinking) and sea level rise.
Fisheries and marine ecosystems:
Studies project harmful algal blooms (HABs) to increase across the country, with especially high impacts in the Northeast. HABs can lead to increased food toxins, decreased fishery productivity, and worse water quality.
Lobster abundances have plummeted by 78% in Southern New England but exploded by 515% in the Gulf of Maine.
Climate change has driven a 16% decline in fishing employment in New England since 1996.
Globally, ranges of marine species are moving poleward with the warming of the planet. In the Northeast, this has led to challenges for fisheries governance.
Under the most extreme emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), researchers expect marine animal biomass to decline by about 15% to 30%. The report also projects primary production (an essential component of the biological carbon pump) to drop in the region.
Ski industry:
In the Northeast, the ski season is projected to significantly decline, even with advances in snowmaking technology — 13% by 2050 under the intermediate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), and 45% by 2080 under the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5).
During several especially warm winters, operational profits for Northeast ski resorts have declined by about 33%.
New England climate news roundup
Now, a look beyond the IPCC report at some of the most important recent climate news stories throughout the region.
Connecticut
A new report from the Yale Institute of the Environment details steps the state could take to protect the most vulnerable residents from climate-fueled natural disasters (Yale.edu).
Climate change poses challenges for maple syrup producers (NBC Connecticut).
Massachusetts
The Massachusetts House passed a bill on Thursday boosting offshore wind in the state. The legislation now heads to the state senate (Wind Power Engineering).
Channel 5 Boston details how climate change makes potholes worse, because of course climate change makes potholes worse (WCVB).
Lawmakers gave an update on the state’s efforts to meet their emissions targets (The Daily Hampshire Gazette).
Councilor Lydia Edwards introduced legislation to the Boston City Council that would empower the city's Building Commissioner to halt the immensely unpopular East Boston substation (East Boston Times).
Maine
Climate change is increasing the range of an invasive, rash-causing moth in the state (ABC News)
A coalition of unions announced the creation of the Maine Labor Climate Council, which aims to promote a labor-focused response to the climate crisis. (Mainebiz).
This coincides with the release of a ‘Maine Climate Jobs Report’ from researchers at Cornell.
Solar-blueberry farms … what’s not to love (Scientific American)?
New Hampshire
The House Science, Technology, and Energy Committee recommended rejection of a bill that would require the state’s Public Utilities Commission to consider climate impact when altering electricity rates (New Hampshire Bulletin)
A story by New Hampshire Public Radio localizes some of the implications of the IPCC report for the state (NHPR).
As the state lags behind the rest of the region on EV infrastructure, advocates call for more changing stations (New Hampshire Bulletin).
On March 14, New Hampshire Network is sponsoring a free virtual presentation from two authors of the state’s upcoming Climate Assessment Report. Find more details here.
Rhode Island
Cornell’s Worker Institute recently released a Rhode Island ‘Climate Jobs Program,’ detailing a labor-focused path to decarbonization for the state (written by some of the same authors at the above-mentioned Maine report).
Two Pawtucket Democrats have introduced legislation to make the Rhode Island Public Transit Authority free for all riders (The Providence Journal).
Vermont
A VPR-Vermont PBS Poll found that 58% of Vermonters expect climate change to have a major impact on their lives in the next 30 years (VPR).
BREAKING: local libertarian opposes a new clean heat standard, citing how small the state is (Vermont Daily Chronicle).