Don't expect new federal climate legislation anytime soon
Climate takeaways from the 2022 midterms
The implications of the 2022 midterms on climate action depend entirely on context — while results have gone better for Democrats than expected by most of the professional political pundit class, the projected loss of the House will strike a major blow to the possibility of significant federal climate legislation over the next two years.
This comes as global carbon emissions are expected to increase 10% by 2030 even if global climate goals are met, and the Paris Agreement targets look increasingly far-fetched. The United States, the richest country in the world and greatest historical contributor to carbon emissions, will continue to drag its feet domestically and abroad.
But for a few silver linings, the midterms also ushered in some major wins for climate candidates and initiatives. I’ll leave it up you whether to celebrate of lament, but here are a few climate takeaways to consider (with a focus on New England of course, because why else would you be here).
A fossil-friendly House
While I’ll make no claims about my ability to predict the future, every single Republican in both the House and the Senate voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, the Democrats’ signature piece of climate legislation. There’s no reason the believe this will change with Republicans poised to retake the House, which means that federal climate legislation will be essentially stalled for at least the next two years. President Biden will face even more pressure to use executive action to address the crisis.
This being said, things could have been a lot worse for Democrats here, and it will presumably be a lot easier to convince a couple of Republicans to cross the aisle than a couple dozen.
No Diehl
No surprises here — in all races for Governor across the New England, incumbents cruised to easy victories.
In the one open seat, Attorney General Maura Healey trounced Geof Diehl to bring Democrats back into the state’s corner office. This could have major implications on climate and energy issues in the state — in contrast to outgoing Republican Gov. Charlie Baker, Healey has been more willing to challenge the industries driving climate change. As Attorney General, she has an ongoing suit against Exxon Mobil for climate disinformation and has called for the state to reassess its ‘Future of Gas’ proceedings and take the planning out of the hands of the gas companies.
As Governor, Healey will have wide latitude to do the latter, and more broadly push the state’s regulatory agencies to focus on climate change. Environmental justice fights in Weymouth, Peabody, and East Boston will likely depend on the course she ultimately chooses to take.
Climate Champions in the House
While Republicans will likely take overall control of the House, a new crop of progressive climate champions will also be heading to Washington. Five candidates running on Green New Deal platforms in congressional races across the country — Greg Casar in Texas, Maxwell Frost in Florida, Becca Balint in Vermont, Summer Lee in Pennsylvania, and Delia Ramirez in Illinois — were elected to Congress, joining a growing climate-focused left flank of the Democratic Party. Additionally, Nikki Budzinski, a union leader and former executive director of Climate Jobs Illinois won in a tight district in the state.
State legislatures stay put
With dim prospects for new federal climate legislation, state legislatures remain the key avenues for meaningful climate policy. Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island will all maintain Democratic majorities in both state house and senate.
In Vermont, where Gov. Phil Scott has frequently clashed with the state legislature on climate issues, Democrats have kept their supermajorities in both chambers, allowing them to override potential vetoes.
In New Hampshire, the only New England state with a Republican-controlled state legislature, the Republicans are poised to hold on to power in the state senate, while the state house is still too close to call and could even end up split down the middle between Democrats and Republicans.
Clean Energy Initiatives
In Rhode Island, a ballot measure providing a $50 million bond for environmental and climate programs passed easily in the state. Meanwhile in New York, despite the rough outcome for Democrats in the state, voters overwhelmingly supported a ballot measure that will provide a whopping $4.2 billion in bonds for climate and environmental projects. This bond includes about $1.5 billion for air and water pollution mitigation, $1 billion for flood mitigation, and another billion split between electrifying the state’s fleet of school buses and promoting offshore wind.
Vibes
Exit polling from Fox News itself found climate change to be a top five issue across the country, with 8% of voters ranked climate change as the most important issue facing the nation. This is a twofold increase compared to Fox’s exit polling in 2020, when 4% of voters ranked climate as their top concern.
The same 2022 exit polling from Fox found that 61% of voters were very or somewhat concerned about the effects of climate change in their community.
Climate News Roundup
Connecticut
Non-white and lower income residents in Connecticut face increased risks of asthma, a result of increased levels of air pollution in their communities (Erik Ofgang — CTMirror)
Maine
Average summer and winter temperatures in Maine have been steadily creeping upwards over the past century (Xiaoxi Ma, George Harvey — Maine Monitor)
A long-term study of arctic char in Maine could shed light on how cold-water fish are responding to climate change (Jack Molmud — News Center Maine)
Massachusetts
The state’s Energy Facilities Siting Board has released a draft decision allowing Eversource to bypass 14 environmental permits and proceed with its unpopular substation project in East Boston, angering environmental justice advocates (Miriam Wasser — WBUR)
A study commissioned by the Massachusetts Climate Action Network found that residents living near the under-construction gas peaker plant in Peabody, on the site of two existing power plants, are already exposed to elevated risk of cancer, heart disease, and stroke (Dharna Noor — The Boston Globe)
A recent report shows that Boston is far off track from meeting its 2030, 2050 climate goals (Sabrina Shankman — The Boston Globe)
New Hampshire
As a new report shows an 11% gap between existing policies in the US and the country’s emissions reduction goals for 2030, New Hampshire continues to lag behind neighboring states on climate legislation (Mara Hoplamazian — NHPR)
Vermont
Maintaining their supermajorities in the state legislature, Democratic lawmakers in Vermont are looking to try again to pass their bill creating a Clean Heat Standard, which was vetoed by the Gov. Scott (R) in the last session. Some lawmakers also want to increase the state’s thresholds for renewable energy (Peter Hirschfeld, Mitch Wertlieb — Vermont Public)
Rhode Island
$63.8 million of federal money from the Inflation Reduction Act will go to Rhode Island’s Office of Energy Resources for rebate programs promoting electric heat pumps and home energy efficiency (Rob Smith — ecoRI)