100 years of December warming
Climate change threatens holiday cheer and a whole lot more
Welcome to another edition of the New England Climate Dispatch! In this week’s newsletter we’re taking a look at some of the ways that climate change is affecting winter in New England.
Thanks to ever-increasing fossil fuel emissions, dreams of a snow-white holiday season are drifting away from reality. Across New England, nostalgic images of frosty snowmen and hanging icicles are being replaced a vile concoction of mud, muddy slush, and frozen mud that may just stick around through early spring.
Way back in December of 1921, the average temperature across the Northeast was 24.1°F — well below freezing. At the time, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was just above 300 parts per million (ppm).
100 years later in 2021, average temperatures in the region were nearly ten degrees warmer, averaging 33.5°F. Concentrations of carbon dioxide are now rapidly nearing 420 ppm.
While monthly temperature averages can experience large swings between years, the big picture over the past hundred years shows a consistent warming pattern over the past 100 Decembers in the region, increasing on average almost five degrees.
Temperatures increases for winter months in the Northeast have actually outpaced other parts of the year, warming at about 0.9°F per decade since 1970, compared to 0.5°F.
Although climate change is driving a modest overall increase in precipitation in the region, more of this is falling as rain rather than as snow. Meanwhile, winter warming has a host of consequences across the region beyond just muddying up the holiday season.
With a more inconsistent and diminished snowpack, decreased levels of spring runoff may struggle to replenish aquifers. Earlier snowmelt combined with higher temperatures could drive increased evaporation and drought conditions in summer months.
Meanwhile, winter flooding could increase as heavy rainstorms fall on frozen ground. Flooding in rivers across the region has been trending up over the past century, along with the intensity of floods. Climate scientists have attributed this to the increasing percentage of precipitation that falls during extreme weather events.
The declining snowpack will also pose a major risk to the winter recreation and tourism industry. As noted in the Intergovernmental Pannel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report from earlier this year on the impacts of climate change, the ski season in the Northeast could shorten by about 45 percent by 2080 if emissions continue unabated.
In central New Hampshire, the annual snowpack has already decreased by 59 to 91 percent since the early 1970s. In Vermont, while annual precipitation in the state has increased by about 20 percent since 1900, snowfall has been declining since the 1960s, with the largest drop in the southeastern part of the state. The most recent state climate assessment from the University of Vermont also projected that the state’s ski season will be cut by about two to four weeks by 2080, depending on emissions levels over the coming decades.
While snow sports typically cater to wealthier individuals that may simply jet northwards to chase the snow, the loss of revenue brought in by winter tourism will affect entire communities in northern New England, hurting bartenders, grocers, and gas station attendants alike.
A diminished snowpack will also come with significant ecological consequences. Snow melting before plants resume photosynthesis can cause essential nutrients to leach from the soil, while freezing temperatures can damage the roots of plants when there is less snow to act as an insulating layer.
For animal species that survive the winter beneath the snowpack, the loss of this insulating layer can prove fatal. This could be an especially big issue for species like the spring peeper and grey tree frog, which can’t tolerate temperatures below about 18°F. Iconic native species from blue-spotted salamanders to brook trout also face their own distinct threats from a diminished snowpack.
An earlier thawing period for frozen ponds and lakes — a phenomenon already occurring throughout the region — contributes to increased algal blooms that can suffocate aquatic ecosystems and hurt water quality.
As New England’s snowpack diminishes at an ever-accelerating rate, everything from the region’s ecosystems, water sources, and small-town business operations will face consequences. The scale of these projected consequences remains to be determined, depending on how quickly emissions can be reduced in the region and across the globe.
With global emissions on track to blow past the 1.5-degree Celsius target set by the Paris Agreement, the impacts of warming remain deeply uneven. Although New England faces major changes, the brunt of the climate crisis still falls upon those living in the Global South.
While contending with consequences in the Northeastern United States, it is important to keep this broader context in mind. Although climate effects are accelerating everywhere, many regions with far less wealth and resources for adaptation — along with less historical responsibility for the planet’s existing greenhouse gases — face disproportionate effects of increasing extreme heat, water scarcity, loss of productive cropland, powerful hurricanes, and devastating floods.
Climate News Roundup
Connecticut
Keeping with climate trends, Connecticut is projected to have a warmer-than-average winter (Abby Weiss — CT Mirror)
As Connecticut’s investor-owned utilities raise rates, more families are applying to the state for help to cover their heating bills (Mike Masciadrelli — WTNH)
Maine
A new federal program at the Department of the Interior will provide a $5 million grant to the Passamaquoddy Tribe for climate adaptation (Murray Carpenter — Maine Public)
Gov. Janet Mills announced $5.4 million in grants for clean energy development and climate resiliency, with a large portion of the money going to clean energy jobs training programs (Penelope Overton — Portland Press Herald)
Massachusetts
Utility giant Eversource has been cleared by the state’s Energy Facilities Siting Board to override the 14 remaining environmental permits required for the construction of its deeply unpopular and potentially dangerous East Boston substation (Dharna Noor — The Boston Globe)
The state recently released the final report from its Commission on Clean Heat, which recommends the implementation of a clean heating standard and increased efforts to rapidly decarbonize buildings in the Commonwealth (Colin A. Young — State House News Service)
New Hampshire
Climate advocates are calling for New Hampshire to increase its efforts promoting electric vehicle chargers as the state lags behind neighbors on charging infrastructure (Robert Zullo — New Hampshire Bulletin)
Rhode Island
A new app allows users to trach changes to Rhode Island’s shoreline (Brian Amaral — The Boston Globe)
Vermont
Vermont utility company Green Mountain Power is using solar energy and battery technology to create microgrids in rural communities with hopes of increasing resiliency (Lisa Prevost — Energy New Network)